Bringing the PABS Annex to life: a simulation tool for the negotiations
Simulates how the proposed terms of the WHO Pandemic Agreement’s Pathogen Access and Benefit-Sharing Annex would work in a future pandemic, to serve the negotiations ahead of the World Health Assembly in May 2027.
“It always seems impossible until it’s done.”Attributed to Nelson Mandela Photo: Johannesburg, 13 May 2008, South Africa The Good News, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Pandemic Treaty PABS Simulation Tool
Build a whole negotiating package across the key issues of the term sheet, then see whether the Parties could sign it, what it delivers in an outbreak, and which trades would close the gap.
as at 20:30 CEST, 30 April 2026 (Appendix to A79/8)
Overlay: IGWG-8 report A/IGWG/8/4 · July 2026 hybrid & federated papers
Countries adopted the WHO Pandemic Agreement in May 2025, but its most important part is still unfinished: the rules for sharing dangerous viruses and the vaccines, tests and treatments made from them (the PABS Annex). Rich and poor countries have barely moved on their red lines. This tool lets negotiators test whole deals and see who would get doses, who would pay and who would sign, before the World Health Assembly decides in May 2027.
What the app is for
Help the Parties reach an annex
A working tool for IGWG-9 (2–13 November 2026), the sessions after it, and adoption at WHA80 in May 2027.
Test whether positions achieve their aims
See what a package produces in an outbreak: doses to WHO, money to the system, and how many manufacturers sign PABS contracts.
Stay neutral
One engine for every bloc. Every assumption is visible, sourced and adjustable, and coordinators set their own bloc’s priorities.
Show every bloc the cost of its hardline
Maximal terms push manufacturers out of an opt-in system, so fewer doses arrive. Pure voluntarism leaves an empty system. The same test runs for everyone.
Put a price on “willingly undertaken”
Cost to manufacturers of each benefit-sharing option in Ebola-type, H1N1-type, COVID-type and novel-pathogen scenarios, so commitments “on mutually agreed terms” can be weighed in money and doses.
Negotiate packages, not clauses
Submit positions on all seven key issues of the term sheet at once, compare packages, and find trades that bring every Party over the line.
Your concerns, answered
Delegations test positions here that they would never say in the room. The app is built so that nobody, including the people who built it, can see what you test.
No. There is no account, no login and no country field. The app never asks which delegation you represent.
No. Every calculation runs in your browser. Nothing you choose or type is sent to a server, logged or tracked, and the page has no analytics.
Packages carry no country name. A share code holds only the positions and your notes, and it travels only through channels you choose.
It stays with your delegation. Today the app uses only the public 30 April 2026 text. In the prototype, your delegation loads its own copy into its own private workspace; it is never pooled or shared.
No. A package tested here is not a position, a proposal or a signal. It has no standing in the negotiation.
You do. Change your bloc’s weights and corrections on the Blocs tab; the defaults are a first coding from public statements, with sources.
The same engine and the same test run for every bloc, and the hardline test shows each side what its maximal package costs. Every assumption is open to challenge in Method.
Saved packages and your weights stay in this browser only.
One limit to know: the page itself sends nothing, but the service hosting it can log that it was opened (for example, your IP address, or your account if you are signed in to that service). For sensitive sessions, open it from a device and network your delegation is comfortable with.
How a bloc coordinator uses it
- Build your package: a position on each key issue, with your own wording in the notes.
- Read the verdict: signable or not, which Party blocks it, and what it delivers in each scenario.
- Set your weights so the model reflects what your bloc cares about most.
- Compare your draft with another bloc’s text and see which issue moves the result.
- Find trades that lift the least satisfied Party without dropping doses below your floor.
- Share the package code inside your bloc, or copy a brief for capital.
What to know before you start
- Base text: the public on-screen annex text of 30 April 2026 (A79/8). Loading your delegation’s current text privately is the next prototype step.
- Private and anonymous: no login, nothing sent to a server. See your concerns, answered.
- Illustrative: the model is not validated. Bloc positions are a first coding from public statements, for coordinators to correct.
- Not a negotiator: it proposes trades for discussion. It does not predict votes or speak for any bloc.
Other provisions in the package (scope, timing, IP, pandemic remainder, export shield, governance)
Find the bridging package
Starting from the package now on the Package tab, the finder searches every combination of positions for the one that lifts the least satisfied Party furthest. It respects every coded red line and keeps doses to WHO above your floor. It proposes trades for discussion; it does not negotiate.
Priority weights
How much each issue matters to each bloc (1 low, 3 high). Coordinators know their own bloc best: change the row for your bloc and every verdict updates. Other provisions count 0.5 each. Only Parties (the four state blocs) decide whether the annex is signable; pharma and civil society are shown for their influence.
The cost of your hardline
The tool gives one bloc its way on every issue and shows what that package produces. The same test runs for every bloc.
Blocs as coded
How the model works
Two signatures matter. Parties sign the annex; manufacturers sign WHO PABS Contracts. A package must clear both.
Parties. Each issue position carries a coded reaction per bloc (−2 to +2, the average of the clauses it sets). A bloc's acceptance is the weighted average, scaled 0–100. A coded red line is a veto. The package is signable when all four state blocs reach the threshold with no veto.
Manufacturers. Benefit-sharing binds only those who sign (Art. 12.6(a); annex II.C.1). Leverage (what staying out costs them) and burden (share of emergency-window revenue given up, plus a compliance load) set participation:
participation = 0.95 × (0.3 + 0.7 × leverage) × 1 / (1 + e^((burden − tolerance)/0.06))
doses to WHO = participation × production × (donation % + affordable %) × delivery + licensed regional supply
lives (benchmark) = doses × lives per 1,000 timely doses × e^(−delay/45 days)
Not modelled yet
Ratification, the Coordinating Financial Mechanism, regional manufacturing ramp-up, inter-pandemic revenue, and the free-text notes on each issue (the prototype agent will read them). Calibration against H1N1 2009, the PIP Framework, COVID-19 and mpox is the first job of the validated version.